In Wood Mackenzie’s recent edition of Perspectives – Metals and Mining, the company reviews the outlook for near-term commodity-market trends, drawing out common themes, exploring the contrasting fortunes of the commodities it covers and adjusting forecasts.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts net import tariffs on goods into the US to average around 10% of total annual US import values throughout President Donald Trump’s term, up from 2.5% in 2024. It is questionable whether the tariff policy will meet its stated objectives of raising US domestic investment in supply and boosting domestic industrial and manufacturing revenue.
The US economy is already in reverse, with GDP shrinking 0.1% on the year in Q1. The company now forecast 1.5% and 1.6% US GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
It has cut its forecast for 2025 global GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.8%. Noting that the “industry will be disproportionately affected”, Wood Mackenzie has shaved 90bp off its global industrial production forecast to 2.2% in 2025 and trimmed its 2026 forecast by 60bp to 2.6%.
According to the company, the picture in Asia is mixed. Tariff-induced supply-chain relocation should benefit India, but it has downgraded its Indian GDP forecast by 40bp to 6.4% this year, nonetheless. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and other Southeast Asian economies are at even more risk from new tariffs.
The European Union’s fledgling growth is set to stagnate as a result of the tariffs, meanwhile, as industrial production remains flat in 2025 following two years of decline.
The outlook through 2027
Wood Mackenzie expects copper, aluminium and zinc to largely hold onto recent gains, despite refined metal deficits turning into surpluses over the period. Stock days of consumption are set to remain below long-term averages, even as supply improves, supporting prices. However, it has scaled back its forecast price highs and now see zinc averaging US$3,000/t in 2026, with a US$3,300/t peak no longer on the cards. Copper will stay below US$10,000/t.
The outlook for battery raw materials remains similar to its previous outlook. Upside potential is still limited, although spodumene and lithium chemical prices are likely to recover from very low levels. The rare earths outlook is still positive on good magnet demand and persistent government limits on Chinese imports and production.
For the full breakdown, visit the Wood Mackenzie website.
